Fund Thought Leadership Insights is a monthly blog series highlighting the best commentaries and expert analysis pieces released by asset management firms. For a full archive, click here.
As 2013 winds down, asset managers are beginning to turn their eye to the future. While prognostication may be best left to the realm of roadside psychics and
internet astrologers, financial managers can look at ongoing trends and give some illumination to their expectations for the coming year. Here, we take a look at the top five thought leadership pieces that offer outlooks and predictions for 2014:
1. BlackRock: 2014 Outlook: The List
BlackRock offers a top 10 list of the firm’s ideas for the coming year, dividing them between five “What to Know” topics and five “What to Do” ideas. The “What to Know” ideas include predictions like continued slow growth and on-going policy uncertainty while the “What to Do” tips recommend equities, international opportunities, and alternative asset classes. The firm stands out for breaking down its predictions into digestible information, making it easier for the layman to follow.
BlackRock’s The List
2. J.P. Morgan: WorldView 4Q2013
J.P. Morgan’s Dr. David Kelly offers his overview on what to expect in 2014. Kelly predicts that the Fed will begin to phase out its bond purchasing program, but that monetary easing is likely to continue in Europe and Japan. The article notes that while central banks have succeeded in stabilizing world economies, they have not significantly boosted growth and may be causing future asset bubbles and increased inequality.
J.P. Morgan’s WorldView
AllianceBernstein’s Joseph G. Carson predicts that U.S. economic growth will accelerate in 2014 as businesses benefit from high levels of liquidity and move away from deleveraging. The piece explains how it is the firm’s view that economic recoveries vary by the causes of preceding recessions, noting that financially driven crises tend to be followed by very slow recoveries. The firm expects the U.S. to accelerate similar to levels seen in the late 90s.
AllianceBernstein on U.S. Economic Recovery
MFS’ Robert Spector, Robert Hall and Sanjay Natarajan all weigh in on expected trends in the coming year. The firm’s thought leaders expect more pain for bond investors as rates continue to rise, while noting that emerging market stocks have improved. Additionally, the firm expects reforms in China that could drive long-term growth though result in near-term volatility.
MFS on Trends in the New Year
Hartford’s Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson predicts economic recovery in the coming year. To take advantage of this, she recommends investing in equities, pointing to dividend-paying stocks as an entry point for investors weary of the risks of the asset class. Jacobson also notes that cyclical stocks may be poised to offer added returns for investors.
Hartford Funds on Economic Recovery